Historical court as abduction（アブダクションとしての歴史法廷）

 The new coronavirus epidemic has been going on for more than a year now. Contrary to our initial expectation, it has continued unabated, so it cannot be called very dramatic, but we must say that it is a pandemic in the history of humanity in the 21st century.

※本記事は、私の「複雑系理論歴史学」のアウトライン Outline of "complexity theory on history ": 本に溺れたい」2020/04/13、の英語版です。
※参照 → 過去を探索する学問モデル Thinking model that explores the past: 本に溺れたい

 This is "mutation" itself in historical phenomena. The "world" transitions on its own (autonomously). The "agents" that move in the "world" move left and right. Some survive because they had already undergone autonomous "change" regardless of the "autonomous transition" of the "world," and some die because they had undergone autonomous "change. Some succeed in raising the "degree of adaptation" by "learning" during the autonomous transition process of the "world," while others lower the "degree of adaptation" rather than "learning," and die out.

 We are witnessing a stunning example of what Max Weber whispered in "Die protestantische Ethik und der 》Geist《 des Kapitalismus": "Wahlverwandtschaften (Elective Affinities)" of history.

 And this relationship can only be understood after the fact. This is because there is a limit to human rationality (bounded rationality) in relation to the complexity of the world. The phenomenon of "evolution" is not something that can be "predicted" in advance (previo) for humans under the "bounded rationality", and we have to wait for the "judgment of history" after the fact (ex post). Even the verdict in that "historical court" can only be "partially" perceived by those who are under the "bounded rationality". Therefore, multiple competing "hypotheses" (in this case, interpretations of historical facts) stand side by side.

 The historical court as abduction (= the formation of hypotheses and the examination of their validity). This is the outline of the "Complex Systems Theory of History" that I aim to polish.